Sunday, May 20, 2012

28. "Paul says he'll cease campaigning in coming primaries"

"Moving forward, however, we will no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted. Doing so with any hope of success would take many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have,"

Gingrich did the same thing a few weeks before he pulled out of the race. This could be a sign of a similar pattern.  At this point, there are not enough delegates left unassigned for Paul to win. From early on there was very little chance of him winning but he stayed in largely simply to be there. If this follow the path of Gingrich, in a few weeks Paul will announce his dropping out of the race.

Romney is now a mere 178 delegates from 1144 delegates. There is no way for him to lose at this point. Both Santorum and Gingrich have backed out, and Paul might soon follow. However, even if none of them had back out Romney would still win.

If Romney had five delegates he would have exactly twice as many delegates as the other three combined.

Source:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/14/11701792-paul-says-hell-cease-campaigning-in-coming-primaries?lite

Sunday, May 13, 2012

27. "Santorum endorses Romney for president"

Recently Rick Santorum dropped out of the Republican Presidential race.

On May 8th, Santorum officially endorsed Mitt Romney.

"'Above all else, we both agree that President (Barack) Obama must be defeated. The task will not be easy. It will require all hands on deck if our nominee is to be victorious,' Santorum said.
"'Governor Romney will be that nominee and he has my endorsement and support to win this the most critical election of our lifetime,' he said in the statement, which was emailed to supporters." 
 While Santorum does mention traits of Romney that he agrees with, Santorum seems to have a focus on more of defeating Obama, despite whether or not the likes the Republican candidate.

This feeling is not uncommon among voters. Mitt Romney has, and has had, a very low approval ratings but is still getting the vast majority of votes. A quite possible reason for this is he is, at the moment, the most likely candidate to defeat Obama.

Also on the 8th were three more state primaries -- Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. Romney won all three of the states, which just adds to his already vast lead. He is now only 178 delegate from the magic number. The closest other candidate is Santorum, who is now getting few low amounts of votes due to his dropping out. Santorum currently needs another 880 delegates.

Source:
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/08/11596180-republican-santorum-endorses-romney-for-president?lite

Additional:
I have been keeping an updated Excel spread sheet covering the votes, delegates, and overall stats. This spreadsheet is online at http://ow.ly/aSNpc

Sunday, May 6, 2012

26. "Newt Gingrich drops out: ‘Truly wild ride’ is over"

On May 2nd, Newt Gingrich dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination. 

Gingrich's campaign was over a while ago, when he reduced spending. However, his campaign has been hopeless for much longer.

Gingrich was receiving approximately 19.9% of the votes. This left a 8% gap between him and Santorum. This might not seem incredibly huge. Over the course of 12 million votes (the current total votes), 8% totals to just shy of 1 million votes.

The numbers have been against him for nearly the entire campaign. Gingrich as won a few states outright. His dropping out is no surprise. There was zero chance of him catching up and passing Romney. Still, he kept hinting for days at dropping out but did not. It seems as if he was desperately hoping people would suddenly start massing, begging him not to drop out. But, alas, they did not.

Sources:

Sunday, April 29, 2012

25. "Acta treaty ‘unacceptable’, says European Data Protection Service"

"Although 22 countries, including Britain, have technically adopted it, a rejection by the EU would effectively kill off the entire treaty."
This is great news. ACTA has already been signed by the U.S. and is waiting the be enacted. If the EU rejects ACTA, the entire thing will die. This would be great, as the U.S. government seems to have to plans on repealing the bill.

"In a statement the EDPS said 'the lack of precision of the Agreement about the measures to be deployed to tackle infringements of intellectual property rights on the Internet may have unacceptable side effects on fundamental rights of individuals, if they are not implemented properly'. "
The wording of ACTA is very loose and broad. There are very few restrictions to it and this leads to many worries. I have no idea how the US did not see this, but at least somebody did, and luckily they are large enough to make a huge impact on whether or not ACTA passes.

Source:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/internet/9225370/Acta-treaty-unacceptable-says-European-Data-Protection-Service.html

24. Only one candidate left, sorta

After the primaries on April 24th, it is clear with almost complete certainty who the Republican presidential candidate will be. With the dropping of Santorum, Romney is now the only candidate left close enough to actually reach the required delegates.

There are 962 delegates left.
Romney needs 297 more delegates to reach the magic number of 1144.
Santorum needs 885 more.
Gingrich needs 1007 more.
Paul needs 1064 more.

Unless something happens to Romney, Gingrich and Paul have no way to get enough delegates to win. The only way Romney won't win is if by some amazing happening, Santorum becomes wildly popular, which is not at all likely to happen.

Source:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

Sunday, April 15, 2012

23. Iran and Uranium enriching

"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said his country has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to 20%."
Uranium for power needs to be enriched anywhere from 5% to 20% to work, the higher the better. For weapon purposes, it needs to be enriched to 90% to 95%, again, higher the better.

When Uranium is mined, it is roughly 99.3% Uranium 238 (U238) and about 0.7% Uranium 235 (U235.) Uranium 238 can be used for power, but it is difficult and there is little room for flexibility in the method. U235 is much better. This is what the enriching process does.

Enriching Uranium is getting more U235 and less U238 in a portion of Uranium. In unenriched Uranium (this is simply mined Uranium without anything done to it) on average, 1 in 140 molecules is U235. This is much, much too low to be used in either power or weapons. As mentioned earlier, power plants can use from 5-20% enriched and nuclear weapons need 90-95%. 90% enriched will barely work for weapons, 95% is really needed. To get Uranium to 20% is not too difficult, but to get it to 95% is very.
Iran is using a gas centrifuge method to enrich Uranium. This is a somewhat old, but is a tried and trusted method.

All the fuss over Iran enriching Uranium, at this point at least, is, I think, unnecessary. If Iran sticks with 20%, there is no chance they can use it against anyone and their claims are true of simply wanting more independence. If they go over 20%, they will have a difficult time getting it to 95%, or even 90%. The time it would take to get the 70% increase would leave plenty of time for another country to step in and stop them.

Sources:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8510451.stm

Sunday, April 8, 2012

22. Romney reaches half way

With the recent primaries, Mitt Romney has reached, and has gone far passed, half way to the magic number, 1144. Does this guarantee his victory with 100% certainty? Possibly.

In order for Romney to win, he needs another 484 delegates. This leaves 674 for the other three candidates.
In order for Santorum to win, he needs another 863 delegates. This leaves 295 for the other three candidates.
In order for Gingrich to win, he needs another 1009 delegates. This leaves 149 for the other three candidates.
In order for Paul to win, he needs another 1093 delegates. This leaves 65 for the other three candidates.

Is Romney guaranteed victory? No. Is he very, very, likely to win? Oh yes. He currently has a 379 delegate lead over Santorum, approaching a massive 400 delegate lead. Even if Santorum and Romney each got 579 delegates more, half the remaining, Santorum would still be 284 delegates short, while Romney would have overshot by 95.

At this point, Ron Paul has, for all intensive purposes, no chance of winning. Unless everyone drops out, there is no chance. These odds are only slightly better for Gingrich.

Romney has three more victories under his belt, with D.C., Maryland and Wisconsin. He received 70.2%, 49.2%, and 44.1% respectively. Two of which (D.C. and Maryland) were Winner-take-all primaries. This only adds to Romney's already enormous lead.

Sources:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates