Sunday, May 20, 2012

28. "Paul says he'll cease campaigning in coming primaries"

"Moving forward, however, we will no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted. Doing so with any hope of success would take many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have,"

Gingrich did the same thing a few weeks before he pulled out of the race. This could be a sign of a similar pattern.  At this point, there are not enough delegates left unassigned for Paul to win. From early on there was very little chance of him winning but he stayed in largely simply to be there. If this follow the path of Gingrich, in a few weeks Paul will announce his dropping out of the race.

Romney is now a mere 178 delegates from 1144 delegates. There is no way for him to lose at this point. Both Santorum and Gingrich have backed out, and Paul might soon follow. However, even if none of them had back out Romney would still win.

If Romney had five delegates he would have exactly twice as many delegates as the other three combined.

Source:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/14/11701792-paul-says-hell-cease-campaigning-in-coming-primaries?lite

Sunday, May 13, 2012

27. "Santorum endorses Romney for president"

Recently Rick Santorum dropped out of the Republican Presidential race.

On May 8th, Santorum officially endorsed Mitt Romney.

"'Above all else, we both agree that President (Barack) Obama must be defeated. The task will not be easy. It will require all hands on deck if our nominee is to be victorious,' Santorum said.
"'Governor Romney will be that nominee and he has my endorsement and support to win this the most critical election of our lifetime,' he said in the statement, which was emailed to supporters." 
 While Santorum does mention traits of Romney that he agrees with, Santorum seems to have a focus on more of defeating Obama, despite whether or not the likes the Republican candidate.

This feeling is not uncommon among voters. Mitt Romney has, and has had, a very low approval ratings but is still getting the vast majority of votes. A quite possible reason for this is he is, at the moment, the most likely candidate to defeat Obama.

Also on the 8th were three more state primaries -- Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. Romney won all three of the states, which just adds to his already vast lead. He is now only 178 delegate from the magic number. The closest other candidate is Santorum, who is now getting few low amounts of votes due to his dropping out. Santorum currently needs another 880 delegates.

Source:
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/08/11596180-republican-santorum-endorses-romney-for-president?lite

Additional:
I have been keeping an updated Excel spread sheet covering the votes, delegates, and overall stats. This spreadsheet is online at http://ow.ly/aSNpc

Sunday, May 6, 2012

26. "Newt Gingrich drops out: ‘Truly wild ride’ is over"

On May 2nd, Newt Gingrich dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination. 

Gingrich's campaign was over a while ago, when he reduced spending. However, his campaign has been hopeless for much longer.

Gingrich was receiving approximately 19.9% of the votes. This left a 8% gap between him and Santorum. This might not seem incredibly huge. Over the course of 12 million votes (the current total votes), 8% totals to just shy of 1 million votes.

The numbers have been against him for nearly the entire campaign. Gingrich as won a few states outright. His dropping out is no surprise. There was zero chance of him catching up and passing Romney. Still, he kept hinting for days at dropping out but did not. It seems as if he was desperately hoping people would suddenly start massing, begging him not to drop out. But, alas, they did not.

Sources:

Sunday, April 29, 2012

25. "Acta treaty ‘unacceptable’, says European Data Protection Service"

"Although 22 countries, including Britain, have technically adopted it, a rejection by the EU would effectively kill off the entire treaty."
This is great news. ACTA has already been signed by the U.S. and is waiting the be enacted. If the EU rejects ACTA, the entire thing will die. This would be great, as the U.S. government seems to have to plans on repealing the bill.

"In a statement the EDPS said 'the lack of precision of the Agreement about the measures to be deployed to tackle infringements of intellectual property rights on the Internet may have unacceptable side effects on fundamental rights of individuals, if they are not implemented properly'. "
The wording of ACTA is very loose and broad. There are very few restrictions to it and this leads to many worries. I have no idea how the US did not see this, but at least somebody did, and luckily they are large enough to make a huge impact on whether or not ACTA passes.

Source:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/internet/9225370/Acta-treaty-unacceptable-says-European-Data-Protection-Service.html

24. Only one candidate left, sorta

After the primaries on April 24th, it is clear with almost complete certainty who the Republican presidential candidate will be. With the dropping of Santorum, Romney is now the only candidate left close enough to actually reach the required delegates.

There are 962 delegates left.
Romney needs 297 more delegates to reach the magic number of 1144.
Santorum needs 885 more.
Gingrich needs 1007 more.
Paul needs 1064 more.

Unless something happens to Romney, Gingrich and Paul have no way to get enough delegates to win. The only way Romney won't win is if by some amazing happening, Santorum becomes wildly popular, which is not at all likely to happen.

Source:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

Sunday, April 15, 2012

23. Iran and Uranium enriching

"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said his country has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to 20%."
Uranium for power needs to be enriched anywhere from 5% to 20% to work, the higher the better. For weapon purposes, it needs to be enriched to 90% to 95%, again, higher the better.

When Uranium is mined, it is roughly 99.3% Uranium 238 (U238) and about 0.7% Uranium 235 (U235.) Uranium 238 can be used for power, but it is difficult and there is little room for flexibility in the method. U235 is much better. This is what the enriching process does.

Enriching Uranium is getting more U235 and less U238 in a portion of Uranium. In unenriched Uranium (this is simply mined Uranium without anything done to it) on average, 1 in 140 molecules is U235. This is much, much too low to be used in either power or weapons. As mentioned earlier, power plants can use from 5-20% enriched and nuclear weapons need 90-95%. 90% enriched will barely work for weapons, 95% is really needed. To get Uranium to 20% is not too difficult, but to get it to 95% is very.
Iran is using a gas centrifuge method to enrich Uranium. This is a somewhat old, but is a tried and trusted method.

All the fuss over Iran enriching Uranium, at this point at least, is, I think, unnecessary. If Iran sticks with 20%, there is no chance they can use it against anyone and their claims are true of simply wanting more independence. If they go over 20%, they will have a difficult time getting it to 95%, or even 90%. The time it would take to get the 70% increase would leave plenty of time for another country to step in and stop them.

Sources:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8510451.stm

Sunday, April 8, 2012

22. Romney reaches half way

With the recent primaries, Mitt Romney has reached, and has gone far passed, half way to the magic number, 1144. Does this guarantee his victory with 100% certainty? Possibly.

In order for Romney to win, he needs another 484 delegates. This leaves 674 for the other three candidates.
In order for Santorum to win, he needs another 863 delegates. This leaves 295 for the other three candidates.
In order for Gingrich to win, he needs another 1009 delegates. This leaves 149 for the other three candidates.
In order for Paul to win, he needs another 1093 delegates. This leaves 65 for the other three candidates.

Is Romney guaranteed victory? No. Is he very, very, likely to win? Oh yes. He currently has a 379 delegate lead over Santorum, approaching a massive 400 delegate lead. Even if Santorum and Romney each got 579 delegates more, half the remaining, Santorum would still be 284 delegates short, while Romney would have overshot by 95.

At this point, Ron Paul has, for all intensive purposes, no chance of winning. Unless everyone drops out, there is no chance. These odds are only slightly better for Gingrich.

Romney has three more victories under his belt, with D.C., Maryland and Wisconsin. He received 70.2%, 49.2%, and 44.1% respectively. Two of which (D.C. and Maryland) were Winner-take-all primaries. This only adds to Romney's already enormous lead.

Sources:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

21. Delegates remaining & outlooks for candidates

NameDelegatesAdditional delegates requiredTotal votes% of total votes
Total940N/A8,489,781100%
Mitt Romney5016433,291,22838.767%
Rick Santorum2538912,267,52726.720%
Newt Gingrich13610082,094,40724.670%
Ron Paul501094835,6199.842%

There are currently 1,344 delegates that have yet to be bound. Things aren't looking good for Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum. If they got the same percentage of votes as they have been getting, all three would fall short by a far margin. This however is not taking into account states using a winner-take-all system. These states might be enough to turn the tide in favor of one of the three, but it is not looking good. 

At this point, Ron Paul has only drawn roughly 10% of the total votes. He is the only candidate yet to break 1 million total votes. The only way he could be chosen the Republican candidate is if none of the other three make if to the required 1,144 delegates (very unlikely at this point,) or if he managed to get 1,094 of the remaining delegates. This would leave only 250 delegates to split between the other three. Judging by the numbers, there is no chance of this.

Newt Gingrich is in a slightly better position that Ron Paul at this point. He is only behind Santorum by roughly  2% of votes, totaling just under 175,000 votes. He loses this buildup however when delegates are considered. Gingrich is trailing Santorum by 117 delegates at this point. Gingrich would require 1,008 delegates of the remaining to become the candidate, leaving only 336 for the other three. This number is just slightly better that Ron Paul, but not by much.

Rick Santorum is in second, but he barely poses any kind of threat to Romney. Santorum has drawn roughly 27% of the votes, just barely staying above Gingrich. Santorum trails Romney by just over 12%, totaling to a whopping 1.02 million vote lead for Romney. The delegate lead is no more promising for Santorum, who trails Romney by 248 delegates. In order for Santorum to become the candidate, he would need to get 891 of the remaining delegates. This would leave 453 delegates for the other three. Of the three candidates mentioned so far, this by far has the best chance of happening, though nowhere near that of Romney winning. 

Mitt Romney has by far the best outlook. He has taken close to 39% of votes. Delegate wise, the results are even more astounding. Romney has take over 53% of the delegates. His delegate count is nearly double that of Santorum. He needs only 643 more delegates to become the candidate. This would leave 701 delegates for the other three to fight over. 

Sunday, March 11, 2012

20. Super Tuesday

March 6 was Super Tuesday. A total of ten states gave out 410 bound delegates. Super Tuesday went very well for Mitt Romney. Before Tuesday he had a 127 delegate lead over second, Rick Santorum. Romney managed to nearly double his lead. He now has a 237 lead over Santorum. In terms of delegates, the candidates have begun to increase in distance. It used to be fairly close, but now most candidates have around a 100 delegate buffer between them and the person lower than them.

Mitt Romney: 454 Delegates (237 more than Santorum)
Rick Santorum: 217 Delegates (110 more than Gingrich, 237 less than Romney)
Newt Gingrich: 107 Delegates (60 more than Paul, 110 less than Santorum)
Ron Paul: 47 Delegates (60 less than Gingrich)


Sources:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/06/super-tuesday-results-2012_n_1316235.html

Sunday, March 4, 2012

19. NDAA

"On December 31, 2011, President Obama signed a law known as the National Defense Authorization Act for the 2012 fiscal year, or the H.R. 1540. Congress passes this act every year to monitor the budget for the Department of Defense. However, this year the NDAA bill has passed with new provisions that should have the entire country up with pitchforks. Normally, this is just an act which details the monetary calls of the Department of Defense which is passed every year. However, the act passed for the 2012 fiscal year changes the bill and can be seen as an extension of the Patriot Act. Now, the indefinite detention has been extended to U.S. citizens as well. If people are spied on and suspected of being terrorists, they may be detained indefinitely without trial."
 The fifth, sixth, and seventh amendments all have at least a little something that could be used the deem the new NDAA unconstitutional. Part of the Fifth Amendment says that "No person ... , nor deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process of law. People arrested under NDAA would be deprived of life and liberty, without due process of law. The Sixth gives the accused the right to a speedy and public trial. The indefinite detention that people would be held under is without trial, violating their Sixth Amendment right. The Seventh is similar to the Sixth as it gives right to a trial by peers. A NDAA arrest would not have any kind of trial.

Just as I was getting used to there being no primaries or caucuses, of course there is another one. Mitt Romney has won yet another caucus. At this point, he has a whopping 127 delegate lead over second place, Rick Santorum. Something I find slightly surprising is that Ron Paul actually has more delegates than Newt Gingrich. True, it is only one more, but still.


Source:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alton-lu/the-national-defense-auth_b_1180869.html

Sunday, February 26, 2012

18. "Justices Take On Medal Lies"

"A California man convicted of falsely claiming to be a Medal of Honor recipient was sentenced to three years of probation, 416 hours of community service and a $5,000 fine under the Stolen Valor Act, a 2006 statute Congress passed "to protect the reputation and meaning" of military honors."

 "A federal appeals court threw out the conviction, finding that the First Amendment didn't envision a "powerful government" policing everyone's speech for 'worthless, offensive, and demonstrable untruths.'"


One way a statement may not be protected under the First Amendment is if it is both false and harmful. Xavier Alvarez's claim of winning the Medal of Honor is clearly false, but it isn't clear whether or not it is harmful. Some people might think it is not, and others that it is. On one hand, his lie did not directly cause harm to anybody. On the other hand, he introduced himself to the audience of a board of directors meeting by saying  "I'm a retired Marine of 25 years. I was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor." Even though he has not so much as served in the military. This case is going to lead to quite a bit of debating, since is saying you are part of a elite group of members when you are not, harmful to the group?


Yet another week goes by without another primary or caucus. I could get used to this.

Source:

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

17. "Bachmann's home no longer in her Congressional district"

Recently in class we were talking about redistricting and gerrymandering. There is a recent news article showcasing what may be a possible occurrence of gerrymandering.

"A Minnesota judicial panel revealed redrawn congressional districts Tuesday that placed Rep. Michele Bachmann's home outside the district she represents."
While the Constitution doesn't require that representatives live in the district they represent, only in the state, it kinda poses a problem for re-election. People generally vote only for people that live in their districts. This is not stopping Bachmann however, as she has still announced that she will run in district six despite now being a resident of district four.

This week feels like the first week in a long time that there were no primaries or caucuses to report on.

Sources:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/21/bachmanns-home-no-longer-in-her-congressional-district/

Sunday, February 12, 2012

16. Ron Paul comes very close to first in Maine

Before the caucus in Maine, Ron Paul had come in second twice and both times with a sizable gap between him and the person in first.
Minnesota

New Hampshire
Both times he lost by 16.9% and 16.4%, respectively. Maine was the closest Ron Paul has come so far to winning first. He lost by only 3.5%, at the time of posting. 
Maine

This may change as Google is only reporting 84% of the district results. However, Mitt Romney has officially been named the winner. This is his fourth win, putting him and Santorum in a tie for wins, both having four.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

15. Newt Gingrich's Moon Colony

Recently Newt Gingrich announced a plan, if elected, to establish a colony on the moon by 2020. This colony would then be named a the 51st state. There are a couple of issues with his proposal.
"Not only is Newt's plan for lunar statehood completely insane—it's also against the law!"
 "The exploration and use of outer space shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries and shall be the province of all mankind;"
"Gingrich's plan for an emphatically American moon colony and resultant 51st Moon State violates the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which was pitched by the USSR, UK, and USA."
"Outer space shall be free for exploration and use by all States;Outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means;"
So the only way he could fulfill this is if other countries also joined in with the colony and that it would not be named as the 51st state.

The other issue is the cost.

"In these economically straitened times, with Congress hell-bent on cutting every federal programme going, finding the money to send a new generation of Nasa astronauts to the moon will remain an impossible dream."
Mitt Romney has won yet another primary, with Newt Gingrich trailing by over 200,00 votes, equating to about 15%.




Sources:
1. http://gizmodo.com/5879917/newt-gingrichs-fantasy-moon-base-is-illegal
2. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/newt-gingrich-promises-build-moon-colony-2020-u-
2 11103078.html
3. http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/blog/2012/jan/26/newt-gingrich-moon-base-dream?newsfeed=true
4. https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=florida+primary+results

Sunday, January 29, 2012

14. ACTA

  SOPA/PIPA have recently been stopped. However, there is a something worse that has been in the works for much longer. This new threat is known as the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, or ACTA. From the name it might not sound like it would have a large impact on the internet, but it would. ACTA basically has SOPA built in, but a harsher version. ACTA is also world-wide.
  With SOPA, it would take under a minute to completely bypass. Under ACTA, this would be illegal. To add to that, they would have enough surveillance in place to catch anybody foolish enough to do it.

"ACTA has several features that raise significant potential concerns for consumers' privacy and civil liberties for innovation and the free flow of information on the Internet [regarding] legitimate commerce and for developing countries' ability to choose policy options that best suit their domestic priorities and level of economic development,"
"All signatory countries will be required to conform their domestic laws and policies to the provisions of the Agreement," said the EFF assessment. "In the U.S. this is likely to further entrench controversial aspects of U.S. copyright law. The recently leaked U.S. IP chapter also includes provisions that appear to go beyond current U.S. law. This raises significant concerns for citizens' due process, privacy and freedom of expression rights."

Sunday, January 22, 2012

13. Iowa Caucus results changed. Santorum wins.

Shortly after the Iowa caucus, Mitt Romney was declared the winner with a very small margin of votes. The actual amount varied, between either 8 or 14 votes. After the results were in, there was a report that Mitt Romney might have gotten an extra 20 votes that he shouldn't have. (http://ow.ly/8CfJz)

Now, the results have changed. The new results show Rick Santorum with a 34 vote victory over Mitt Romney. This means that Mitt Romney was not the first person to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. This could have an impact on his campaign, since instead of the two victories he only has one.

Mitt Romney came in second behind Newt Gingrich in the South Carolina primary. He lost with over a 75,000 vote difference.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

12. "Huntsman departs race"

"Days before the South Carolina primary, Jon Huntsman dropped out of the presidential race Monday and endorsed Mitt Romney for the party's nomination, becoming the latest Republican to call the GOP front-runner the strongest candidate to beat the Democratic incumbent."
Huntsman did decently in the New Hampshire primary, placing third.
The results don't indicate a obvious reason for Huntsman to drop out of the race. However, it is suggested that the fact that he stayed out of the Iowa caucus could have hurt his running.
"Huntsman made the strategic decision to skip campaigning in Iowa. Today, Iowans are wondering if the move contributed to his demise.
While every other presidential candidate was stumping in dozens of Iowa counties, Jon Huntsman stayed away.
"Iowa picks corn, not presidents," said Huntsman, prior to the Iowa Caucus."
Huntsman did terribly in the Iowa caucus. He did not manage to receive even a single percent. He finished with 745 votes, which is 0.6% of the total votes. His comment couldn't have helped, people tend not to like it when you say things like that about their state.

Sources:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46010872
http://www.kcci.com/r/30224931/detail.html

Sunday, January 8, 2012

11. "Iowa Caucus 2012 Results: Vote-Counter Says Mistake Gave Mitt Romney 20 Extra Votes"

"Speaking to a large gathering of New Hampshire voters at Windham High School, the Pennsylvania Republican said he was unaware that a local television station in Iowa had aired a report on a potential vote count discrepancy that would alter the winner of the caucus two days ago.

The station, KCCI, reported that in Appanoose County, a vote-counter had discovered an inconsistency between the number of the 50 votes he had monitored and what the Republican Party of Iowa had recorded.
'When Mitt Romney won Iowa by eight votes and I've got a 20-vote discrepancy here, that right there says Rick Santorum won Iowa,' said the vote-counter, Edward True, 28. 'Not Mitt Romney.'"
The Caucus was won by a margin of 8 votes, (According to Google, image below,) which means that if there truly is a 20-vote discrepancy that Romney in fact did not win.
 Whether or not there actually is a discrepancy is yet to be confirmed. Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn's statement regarding Appanoose County caucus results:
"'Iowa GOP rules provide for a two-week certification process for reach of the 1,774 precincts. The Iowa GOP will announce the final, certified results of the 2012 Iowa Causes following this process. Out of respect to the candidates involved, party officials we will not respond to every rumor, innuendo or allegation during the two week process. That said, Iowa GOP officials have been in contact with Appanoose County Republican officials tonight and do not have any reason to believe the final, certified results of Appanoose County will change the outcome of Tuesday's vote.'"