Sunday, March 18, 2012

21. Delegates remaining & outlooks for candidates

NameDelegatesAdditional delegates requiredTotal votes% of total votes
Total940N/A8,489,781100%
Mitt Romney5016433,291,22838.767%
Rick Santorum2538912,267,52726.720%
Newt Gingrich13610082,094,40724.670%
Ron Paul501094835,6199.842%

There are currently 1,344 delegates that have yet to be bound. Things aren't looking good for Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum. If they got the same percentage of votes as they have been getting, all three would fall short by a far margin. This however is not taking into account states using a winner-take-all system. These states might be enough to turn the tide in favor of one of the three, but it is not looking good. 

At this point, Ron Paul has only drawn roughly 10% of the total votes. He is the only candidate yet to break 1 million total votes. The only way he could be chosen the Republican candidate is if none of the other three make if to the required 1,144 delegates (very unlikely at this point,) or if he managed to get 1,094 of the remaining delegates. This would leave only 250 delegates to split between the other three. Judging by the numbers, there is no chance of this.

Newt Gingrich is in a slightly better position that Ron Paul at this point. He is only behind Santorum by roughly  2% of votes, totaling just under 175,000 votes. He loses this buildup however when delegates are considered. Gingrich is trailing Santorum by 117 delegates at this point. Gingrich would require 1,008 delegates of the remaining to become the candidate, leaving only 336 for the other three. This number is just slightly better that Ron Paul, but not by much.

Rick Santorum is in second, but he barely poses any kind of threat to Romney. Santorum has drawn roughly 27% of the votes, just barely staying above Gingrich. Santorum trails Romney by just over 12%, totaling to a whopping 1.02 million vote lead for Romney. The delegate lead is no more promising for Santorum, who trails Romney by 248 delegates. In order for Santorum to become the candidate, he would need to get 891 of the remaining delegates. This would leave 453 delegates for the other three. Of the three candidates mentioned so far, this by far has the best chance of happening, though nowhere near that of Romney winning. 

Mitt Romney has by far the best outlook. He has taken close to 39% of votes. Delegate wise, the results are even more astounding. Romney has take over 53% of the delegates. His delegate count is nearly double that of Santorum. He needs only 643 more delegates to become the candidate. This would leave 701 delegates for the other three to fight over. 

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