Sunday, March 18, 2012

21. Delegates remaining & outlooks for candidates

NameDelegatesAdditional delegates requiredTotal votes% of total votes
Total940N/A8,489,781100%
Mitt Romney5016433,291,22838.767%
Rick Santorum2538912,267,52726.720%
Newt Gingrich13610082,094,40724.670%
Ron Paul501094835,6199.842%

There are currently 1,344 delegates that have yet to be bound. Things aren't looking good for Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum. If they got the same percentage of votes as they have been getting, all three would fall short by a far margin. This however is not taking into account states using a winner-take-all system. These states might be enough to turn the tide in favor of one of the three, but it is not looking good. 

At this point, Ron Paul has only drawn roughly 10% of the total votes. He is the only candidate yet to break 1 million total votes. The only way he could be chosen the Republican candidate is if none of the other three make if to the required 1,144 delegates (very unlikely at this point,) or if he managed to get 1,094 of the remaining delegates. This would leave only 250 delegates to split between the other three. Judging by the numbers, there is no chance of this.

Newt Gingrich is in a slightly better position that Ron Paul at this point. He is only behind Santorum by roughly  2% of votes, totaling just under 175,000 votes. He loses this buildup however when delegates are considered. Gingrich is trailing Santorum by 117 delegates at this point. Gingrich would require 1,008 delegates of the remaining to become the candidate, leaving only 336 for the other three. This number is just slightly better that Ron Paul, but not by much.

Rick Santorum is in second, but he barely poses any kind of threat to Romney. Santorum has drawn roughly 27% of the votes, just barely staying above Gingrich. Santorum trails Romney by just over 12%, totaling to a whopping 1.02 million vote lead for Romney. The delegate lead is no more promising for Santorum, who trails Romney by 248 delegates. In order for Santorum to become the candidate, he would need to get 891 of the remaining delegates. This would leave 453 delegates for the other three. Of the three candidates mentioned so far, this by far has the best chance of happening, though nowhere near that of Romney winning. 

Mitt Romney has by far the best outlook. He has taken close to 39% of votes. Delegate wise, the results are even more astounding. Romney has take over 53% of the delegates. His delegate count is nearly double that of Santorum. He needs only 643 more delegates to become the candidate. This would leave 701 delegates for the other three to fight over. 

Sunday, March 11, 2012

20. Super Tuesday

March 6 was Super Tuesday. A total of ten states gave out 410 bound delegates. Super Tuesday went very well for Mitt Romney. Before Tuesday he had a 127 delegate lead over second, Rick Santorum. Romney managed to nearly double his lead. He now has a 237 lead over Santorum. In terms of delegates, the candidates have begun to increase in distance. It used to be fairly close, but now most candidates have around a 100 delegate buffer between them and the person lower than them.

Mitt Romney: 454 Delegates (237 more than Santorum)
Rick Santorum: 217 Delegates (110 more than Gingrich, 237 less than Romney)
Newt Gingrich: 107 Delegates (60 more than Paul, 110 less than Santorum)
Ron Paul: 47 Delegates (60 less than Gingrich)


Sources:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/06/super-tuesday-results-2012_n_1316235.html

Sunday, March 4, 2012

19. NDAA

"On December 31, 2011, President Obama signed a law known as the National Defense Authorization Act for the 2012 fiscal year, or the H.R. 1540. Congress passes this act every year to monitor the budget for the Department of Defense. However, this year the NDAA bill has passed with new provisions that should have the entire country up with pitchforks. Normally, this is just an act which details the monetary calls of the Department of Defense which is passed every year. However, the act passed for the 2012 fiscal year changes the bill and can be seen as an extension of the Patriot Act. Now, the indefinite detention has been extended to U.S. citizens as well. If people are spied on and suspected of being terrorists, they may be detained indefinitely without trial."
 The fifth, sixth, and seventh amendments all have at least a little something that could be used the deem the new NDAA unconstitutional. Part of the Fifth Amendment says that "No person ... , nor deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process of law. People arrested under NDAA would be deprived of life and liberty, without due process of law. The Sixth gives the accused the right to a speedy and public trial. The indefinite detention that people would be held under is without trial, violating their Sixth Amendment right. The Seventh is similar to the Sixth as it gives right to a trial by peers. A NDAA arrest would not have any kind of trial.

Just as I was getting used to there being no primaries or caucuses, of course there is another one. Mitt Romney has won yet another caucus. At this point, he has a whopping 127 delegate lead over second place, Rick Santorum. Something I find slightly surprising is that Ron Paul actually has more delegates than Newt Gingrich. True, it is only one more, but still.


Source:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alton-lu/the-national-defense-auth_b_1180869.html